Bay State League 2016

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Squeeze into 1st. Braintree has not shown it can win big games against skilled teams.

I have no idea to be honest 1-4 is going to be a blood bath between Braintree, Needham, Weymouth, and Framingham. I think it'll come down to who beats who obviously but who has the better record against the herget division. I Still think Braintree is favorite to win the League but Losses to Weymouth, Needham, Framingham could make things interesting.

1. Braintree 9-3-4 22pts
2. Needham 8-3-5 21pts
3. Weymouth 9-5-2 20pts
4. Framingham 9-5-2 20pts
5. Brookline 6-8-4 16pts
6. Newton North 3-11-2 8pts

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Good reasonable prediction. I don't have Framingham doing so good though probably closer to 16 points

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Good reasonable prediction. I don't have Framingham doing so good though probably closer to 16 points

Braintree will run the table - won't even break a sweat.

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Braintree will run the table - won't even break a sweat.

Braintree will lose to Needham Twice, Lost at Framingham, Lose at Weymouth, Tie at Brookline, and likely Lose a game to Wellseley or Natick. Braintree is nothing special just a group of average players and that's about it

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Question of the day: Out of the two teams from Northern MA, is Framingham or Brookline the more dangerous side in the conference and their respective tournament play?

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Question of the day
Is Needham practically a lock for 2nd I'm the BSC? More likely that they fall to 3rd or squeeze into first?

3rd, even 4th, more likely than 1st. There have been questions about the chops of the Braintree coach, but they could be asked of Needham's coach as well. As 4 seed in his only season, they beat 13 seed, beat 5 seed, lost to 8 seed. Not deserving of huge criticism, but can't say there's an impressive track record of big-game wins that would lead you to rate them more likely to finish ahead of Braintree than behind Framingham, Weymouth and/or Brookline.

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I have no idea to be honest 1-4 is going to be a blood bath between Braintree, Needham, Weymouth, and Framingham. I think it'll come down to who beats who obviously but who has the better record against the herget division. I Still think Braintree is favorite to win the League but Losses to Weymouth, Needham, Framingham could make things interesting.

1. Braintree 9-3-4 22pts
2. Needham 8-3-5 21pts
3. Weymouth 9-5-2 20pts
4. Framingham 9-5-2 20pts
5. Brookline 6-8-4 16pts
6. Newton North 3-11-2 8pts

Braintree was 10-2-4 last year and reportedly returns 10 starters, so they should improve rather than decline. 13-1-2
Needham was 12-2-2 in 2015 and seems to have graduated maybe 1/2 of their starters including the top scoring threat in the league, maybe in the state. So they should fall back. 8-3-5 reasonable
Weymouth was 7-7-2 and some here particularly like a couple of their midfielders, while others look at their middling offense, middling defense and see a similar discussion to last year. 9-5-2 reasonable
Framingham was 8-2-7 a year ago with offensive results not much different than weymouth, but better defending. Few reports about who's returning, so let's assume average turnover for them, average teamwork and an average year for them. 9-5-2 reasonable.
Brookline was 9-4-3 in 2015 and like Needham graduated a top scoring threat. Following the logic that Needham drops 5 points, assume Brookline also drops 5 points. But 6-8-4 adds up to more league games than they play, so back that off to 5-7-4.
NN improved to 4-11-1 last year, and with more of their opponents seeming weaker rather than stronger, there's a case that they could actually do a little better. Predicting 4-9-3.

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Question of the day: Out of the two teams from Northern MA, is Framingham or Brookline the more dangerous side in the conference and their respective tournament play?

Newton North is also placed in the North by MIAA (in a process that probably should be re-thought from top to bottom, but that's aside). Of the 3, Framingham should be thought of as the most dangerous side, because they more consistently have skilled players coming through year after year. They seem to have the most potential, but struggle in the span of a short high school season to pass and move in concert. Brookline has been better defensively than offensively in recent years, and their relatively good offense of 2015 now has the setback of their excellent scorer graduating. So they seem less dangerous than Framingham. Newton North did better last year. Hard to tell whether they're more likely to step a little further forward, or back again. If they could improve from 4-11-1 in league play to 5-7-4, then schedule winnable non-league games, they could qualify for the tourney. But the chance is remote, and even if they got there, they wouldn't be a threat to the top teams.

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Braintree was 10-2-4 last year and reportedly returns 10 starters, so they should improve rather than decline. 13-1-2
Needham was 12-2-2 in 2015 and seems to have graduated maybe 1/2 of their starters including the top scoring threat in the league, maybe in the state. So they should fall back. 8-3-5 reasonable
Weymouth was 7-7-2 and some here particularly like a couple of their midfielders, while others look at their middling offense, middling defense and see a similar discussion to last year. 9-5-2 reasonable
Framingham was 8-2-7 a year ago with offensive results not much different than weymouth, but better defending. Few reports about who's returning, so let's assume average turnover for them, average teamwork and an average year for them. 9-5-2 reasonable.
Brookline was 9-4-3 in 2015 and like Needham graduated a top scoring threat. Following the logic that Needham drops 5 points, assume Brookline also drops 5 points. But 6-8-4 adds up to more league games than they play, so back that off to 5-7-4.
NN improved to 4-11-1 last year, and with more of their opponents seeming weaker rather than stronger, there's a case that they could actually do a little better. Predicting 4-9-3.

Braintree over achieved last year. They'll finish 9-4-3. They have no stars. They have no threats.

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Braintree will stumble like Braintree always does. It's the Braintree way.

coaching possible big issue

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coaching possible big issue

Yes, it happens when athletic teams come up against skilled teams with as much or almost as much athleticism. They play a team with comparable athletes and they can't compete

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Yes, it happens when athletic teams come up against skilled teams with as much or almost as much athleticism. They play a team with comparable athletes and they can't compete

In this circumstance they teach the Braintree kids to throw dirty elbows behind the play so the ref doesn't see it.

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Braintree over achieved last year. They'll finish 9-4-3. They have no stars. They have no threats.

Not a braintree cheerleader here, but overachieved often means a team was fortunate and won an unusual proportion of close games. Another symptom is that average teams do just as well against an overachiever as the strong teams. It doesn't seem that this decribes braintree in 2015. Braintree's league record was just 2 points shy of Needham's, and their goal difference was in the same range as Needham's.

Maybe they have no stars, but that could be a plus, as stars can often be shut down by good opponents. As for threats, agree that there's not 1 highly promoted name, but when a team scores 60+ goals and has 90% of starting lineup returning, that's pretty threatening.

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Not a braintree cheerleader here, but overachieved often means a team was fortunate and won an unusual proportion of close games. Another symptom is that average teams do just as well against an overachiever as the strong teams. It doesn't seem that this decribes braintree in 2015. Braintree's league record was just 2 points shy of Needham's, and their goal difference was in the same range as Needham's.

Maybe they have no stars, but that could be a plus, as stars can often be shut down by good opponents. As for threats, agree that there's not 1 highly promoted name, but when a team scores 60+ goals and has 90% of starting lineup returning, that's pretty threatening.

I particularly like the goals where they just push the goalie into the net. Pure class.

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It's a fair point that braintree's style is very aggressive. For the purposes of this forum, who's the favorite in the league and why, does their aggressiveness make them more likely to succeed, or less? It could make Braintree less successful if it leads to cards and suspensions, but realistically, that is very unlikely. Cards are given in HS boys soccer at about 1/4 the rate given in high-level youth soccer of the comparable age group, so braintree's style is likely to help them, as it makes them harder to play against.