Yawn. Tomorrow decides. Who's next?
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Wow... how does adf lose 4-0? Either there is a buzzsaw called 4H, or ADF had an off day..... very confused
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostOK, I've filled in the spreadsheet, performed a Monte Carlo simulation, done the regression analysis, consulted a Ouija board, scattered entrails on the floor, read the tea leaves, and consulted the Oracle of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, and here's the scoop for tomorrow:
1) At this point, three teams (FC, 4H, and BSC) have clinched their group. Copa has clinched a spot in the quarterfinals (even if they lose by four to ETFC they will be guaranteed a wildcard spot on goal differential--ADF getting stomped today means ADF cannot pass Copa in the standings) . PCU, LYS, Samba, RVT, Corvallis, SSC, IFC Eagles, and NEU are out. WashT, three teams in Group B, ADF, ETFC, and Bend are still alive.
What each team needs to do to advance:
1) Wash T (4.5 pts, +4.5 GD pro-rated): Hope either CFC or Crossfire lose, AND Bend loses.
2) CFC (4 points, +4 GD, game remaning vs IFC Cuervos). Win vs IFC. Advancement with a tie or a loss is possible, but far less likely.
3) Crossfire (4 points, +1 GD, game remaining vs LYS). Win vs LYS. Advancement with a tie or loss is possible, but far less likely.
4) Cuervos (1 point, -1 GD, game remaining at CFC). Beat CFC by 4 goals, and hope Crossfire loses by at least two goals.
5) ADF (6 points, +2 GD, 7GA). Now out of their hands. 7 goals against means they will lose all tiebreakers on even goal differential. Will advance if either a) Crossfire or CFC fail to win, OR b) Copa beats ETFC by four or more OR c) Bend fails to win by at least two against NEU.
6) ETFC (6 points, +5GD, 2 GA, game remaining at Copa). Will advance unless they lose by four or more to Copa (or lose by 3 and give up a tone of goals in the process), and may still advance even if they do lose bigly. A victory over Copa would make them the Group D winners, otherwise they are a wildcard if they advance.
7) Bend (3 points, 0 GD, 4GA, game reamining vs NEU). Needs to beat NEU. If they do; they advance if either a) they win by three or more; b) they win by two goals and don't give up three goals, or c) either Crossfire or CFC fails to win. If Bend loses or ties, they are done.
Bottom line: ETFC, CFC, and Crossfire all control their own destiny, and will advance with a win. ETFC is in the strongest position of the remaining teams, as they advance with a win or a time, and disaster would have to strike for them not to move on. Bend also advances with a large enough win--a one-goal victory may not be enough. 4H is in a weaker position--they need some help to advance--though only one out of four things need to happen for them to move on. WT FC needs a lot of help, and Cuervos would need to come out on top of a four-way time in Group B.
If a) Copa loses by four or more, b) Bend wins by four or more, c) Copa gives up at least five goals, and d) both Crossfire and CFC win, Copa will be the #8 seed and meet FC in the quarterfinals. That's Copa's worst case at this point.
What all of this means is--if Copa fails to beat ETFC by at least four, piles of ADF fans will whine that the fix is in, and Copa conspired to try and eliminate ADF. If Copa thrashes ETFC and manages to knock them out of the quarterfinals, piles of FC fans will whine that the fix is in, particularly if ADF winds up as the #8 seed. (Either Crossfire or CFC failing to win would make it mostly moot, as then six points would guarantee a spot in the quarterfinals and both ETFC and ADF would be through). Either way, Westside will be accused of foul conspiracies and match-rigging by the various factions here on TS.
And that's probably the thing that can be stated with the highest degree of certainty.
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostOK, I've filled in the spreadsheet, performed a Monte Carlo simulation, done the regression analysis, consulted a Ouija board, scattered entrails on the floor, read the tea leaves, and consulted the Oracle of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, and here's the scoop for tomorrow:
1) At this point, three teams (FC, 4H, and BSC) have clinched their group. Copa has clinched a spot in the quarterfinals (even if they lose by four to ETFC they will be guaranteed a wildcard spot on goal differential--ADF getting stomped today means ADF cannot pass Copa in the standings) . PCU, LYS, Samba, RVT, Corvallis, SSC, IFC Eagles, and NEU are out. WashT, three teams in Group B, ADF, ETFC, and Bend are still alive.
What each team needs to do to advance:
1) Wash T (4.5 pts, +4.5 GD pro-rated): Hope either CFC or Crossfire lose, AND Bend loses.
2) CFC (4 points, +4 GD, game remaning vs IFC Cuervos). Win vs IFC. Advancement with a tie or a loss is possible, but far less likely.
3) Crossfire (4 points, +1 GD, game remaining vs LYS). Win vs LYS. Advancement with a tie or loss is possible, but far less likely.
4) Cuervos (1 point, -1 GD, game remaining at CFC). Beat CFC by 4 goals, and hope Crossfire loses by at least two goals.
5) ADF (6 points, +2 GD, 7GA). Now out of their hands. 7 goals against means they will lose all tiebreakers on even goal differential. Will advance if either a) Crossfire or CFC fail to win, OR b) Copa beats ETFC by four or more OR c) Bend fails to win by at least two against NEU.
6) ETFC (6 points, +5GD, 2 GA, game remaining at Copa). Will advance unless they lose by four or more to Copa (or lose by 3 and give up a tone of goals in the process), and may still advance even if they do lose bigly. A victory over Copa would make them the Group D winners, otherwise they are a wildcard if they advance.
7) Bend (3 points, 0 GD, 4GA, game reamining vs NEU). Needs to beat NEU. If they do; they advance if either a) they win by three or more; b) they win by two goals and don't give up three goals, or c) either Crossfire or CFC fails to win. If Bend loses or ties, they are done.
Bottom line: ETFC, CFC, and Crossfire all control their own destiny, and will advance with a win. ETFC is in the strongest position of the remaining teams, as they advance with a win or a time, and disaster would have to strike for them not to move on. Bend also advances with a large enough win--a one-goal victory may not be enough. 4H is in a weaker position--they need some help to advance--though only one out of four things need to happen for them to move on. WT FC needs a lot of help, and Cuervos would need to come out on top of a four-way time in Group B.
If a) Copa loses by four or more, b) Bend wins by four or more, c) Copa gives up at least five goals, and d) both Crossfire and CFC win, Copa will be the #8 seed and meet FC in the quarterfinals. That's Copa's worst case at this point.
What all of this means is--if Copa fails to beat ETFC by at least four, piles of ADF fans will whine that the fix is in, and Copa conspired to try and eliminate ADF. If Copa thrashes ETFC and manages to knock them out of the quarterfinals, piles of FC fans will whine that the fix is in, particularly if ADF winds up as the #8 seed. (Either Crossfire or CFC failing to win would make it mostly moot, as then six points would guarantee a spot in the quarterfinals and both ETFC and ADF would be through). Either way, Westside will be accused of foul conspiracies and match-rigging by the various factions here on TS.
And that's probably the thing that can be stated with the highest degree of certainty.
Good news though Westside- you will know the crossfire and CFC results before you take the field so you should have ample time to devise your strategy and consult with Kellyanne Conway about how to best ignore/deflect and victimize yourself with your post game rant so you should be fine....
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostWow... how does adf lose 4-0? Either there is a buzzsaw called 4H, or ADF had an off day..... very confused
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostJust more top 05's leaving the team before this weekend's matches. That's usual for everyone in the middle of state cup, right? Something is very broken and the club doesn't want to admit it. If I counted correctly, we're missing somewhere around 8-9 of our original 18 kids, give or take. Its unfortunate.
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostJust win and you will save yourself a ton of grief and questioning. You are much better than Eugene so anything less than a win should be viewed as suspicious, especially after you have all but come out and said you can pick your opponent (placement in the bracket) and that you are scared of fc and should try to avoid them until the finals since it's a shame the two best teams will be playing in the semi's in previous posts. Some of remember what you have said and done in the past which is why we feel as warm and fuzzy about you to begin with..
Good news though Westside- you will know the crossfire and CFC results before you take the field so you should have ample time to devise your strategy and consult with Kellyanne Conway about how to best ignore/deflect and victimize yourself with your post game rant so you should be fine....
Just making fun of the sort of honk who seems to believe that Samba entered the tournament only to force FC into a short group...
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostOh, I agree. I expect Copa to win, barring disaster. I doubt Jaime will play any games with the score.
Just making fun of the sort of honk who seems to believe that Samba entered the tournament only to force FC into a short group...
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostJust win and you will save yourself a ton of grief and questioning. You are much better than Eugene so anything less than a win should be viewed as suspicious, especially after you have all but come out and said you can pick your opponent (placement in the bracket) and that you are scared of fc and should try to avoid them until the finals since it's a shame the two best teams will be playing in the semi's in previous posts. Some of remember what you have said and done in the past which is why we feel as warm and fuzzy about you to begin with..
Good news though Westside- you will know the crossfire and CFC results before you take the field so you should have ample time to devise your strategy and consult with Kellyanne Conway about how to best ignore/deflect and victimize yourself with your post game rant so you should be fine....
Copa's spot in the quarterfinals is set. Unless they manage to lose, they will be the #4 seed vs BSC.
The morning games will reveal who wins group B, and whether there is a two-way tie at the top of Group B. If both teams finish with seven points (if they both win, in other words), then one of ADF, ETFC, or Bend is out. But we won't know who until after the Bend game later in the day.
If either Crossfire or Capitol stumble, then ADF is in no matter what. Eugene is in no matter what. And even if both CFC and Crossfire win, Bend could still lose or tie, in which case ADF and Eugene still will advance, no matter what.
As far as seeding goes? Won't know that until after Bend finishes in the afternoon either.
So Copa's ability to definitively affect the outcome is very limited. Not nonexistent, but not limited. Basically, Copa game determines relative placement of Eugene and ADF. That's it.
Won't stop the usual suspects from yakking, though.
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Originally posted by Unregistered View PostNever said that, actually pointed out that several did not belong and thus created the unbalanced issue. Samba got thrown under the bus due to the Westside Timbers honks making it about them once again and playing their own pitty card. If you feel that you can honestly tell me that the way this shook down for wa Timbers is equitabke then you have issues...
That said--they wouldn't have been in the pickle if Red 2 hadn't done exactly as you suggest, and bail on State Cup upon going winless in Spring. If Red 2 were in the tournament, they would have been the #16 seed (based on fall league), not CFC, and Cuervos would have been the fourth team in Group A.
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