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State Cup Semi and Finals predictions

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    State Cup Semi and Finals predictions

    In the last two years I have had daughters play in all three age groups (GU-14 to GU-16), although this year none are through to the semi-finals. However, I have seen quite a bit of all the teams in these groups so I will venture into some analysis.

    The U-16 group is by far the group with the deepest and most consistent talent. This is the third straight year for these four teams. Truly, any of these four teams could end up winning the whole thing. The Stars have been the class so far, and it will take a very strong effort to knock them out. Especially on a big, dry, turf field. They are strong everywhere, including their bench. I have seen some Aztecs teams concentrate on possession for the sake of possession. This Aztecs team is a little less likely to worry about ball control and more likely to play a counter-attacking style. They have a good mix of athleticism and skill and are strong in the defensive middle. If they get down early against the Stars they will struggle, but if they can keep the Stars off the board they have a great chance to win. The Pioneers/ SS Select game shapes up to be a real even match. The Pioneers have played very well all year and played one of the best teams in the Region (Albertson) essentially even earlier this spring. This is the fourth straight year the Selects have made the semis, but they have lost the last two. I think their hunger to get back into the finals will prevail this year.

    The U-15 group also features four great teams. Stars have great individual talent and will really be helped by the big turf field. Their depth and ball control can really wear a team down on that surface. Crusaders are a solid, well coached team. For them to win I think they will need to get some results out of set plays and play a bend but don’t break defense. Much like the U-16Stars/Aztecs game if Stars get up early it will be a struggle for the Crusaders. Scorpions beat the Pioneers 4-2 on turf earlier in the year. However, a lot can change over two months. The team that best handles the heat will win this game.

    The U-14 group is pretty well examined on this site. Mathman has his ratings and recurring posters weigh in pretty regularly. It would be a lot of fun to see the Scorpions and Stars face off in the final. They are both great teams. I got a chance to see a little of a Stars game in Amherst. What struck me was the wave of offense that they send from their strikers and outside middies. They also use the entire field better than any other team in all three of these age groups. The fly in the ointment is that the Bolts are also a very strong team. They are very well coached and have players that can unquestionably execute a game plan to try to slow down the Stars attack and counter with their big strong forwards. Obviously the Scorpions have a very special player but they are very deep everywhere else. They are especially solid in the defensive middle. They play with great pace. Although not as offensively dangerous as the Stars, they have won a lot of big games and will enter with lots of confidence. Hamlets are a big physical team that might have some problems with the Scorps on the big turf field, especially if it gets hot early. Their big advantage is the hope that they can get the Scorps looking past them to Sunday.

    #2
    Carmac -

    Very enjoyable read - good work.

    Comment


      #3
      pretty amazing that this is the same group of four teams in the 16 group for third straight year. Maybe this is the year that someone gets to the Stars.

      Comment


        #4
        My 10 cents for the girls

        u12 Tri Valley
        u13 Scorps
        U14 Scorps/Stars sorry have to sit on the fence too close to call
        u15 Stars
        u16 Stars

        Thats as far as I go in any knowledge of the age groups. Should be a great weekend of soccer

        Comment


          #5
          Is it the same teams that get to the final 4 in each age group? does anyone have stats of the previous finals 4's for these age groups? Is it a trend or a sign of the development clubs.

          Comment


            #6
            You can find the stats on the MYSA site here -

            http://www.mayouthsoccer.org/pages/66_state_cup.cfm

            at the bottom under previous state cups.

            Comment


              #7
              2006 Results

              http://www.mayouthsoccer.org/pages/1858 ... up_Results


              2004 Results

              http://www.mayouthsoccer.org/pages/438_ ... up_Results

              Can't find any other years archived.

              Comment


                #8
                Never mind - see SS post.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Anonymous
                  Is it the same teams that get to the final 4 in each age group? does anyone have stats of the previous finals 4's for these age groups? Is it a trend or a sign of the development clubs.
                  That's an interesting question, so I had to find the answer. :D Unfortunately following the link that Suzy Soccer gave MYSA does not have results beyond 2004, despite showing 2003 and 2002 and they've posted the 2006 semi-final results under 2005, so I'm only including finals for that year. So for age groups U13 through U19, and years 2004 through 2006, here's how the various clubs did (C=Champions, F=Finalist, S=Semi-finalist). And just to give it an admittedly inaccurate quantitative value, I assigned points (3 for championship, 2 for finalist, 1 for semi-finalist):

                  Bolts: 11 C, 4 F, 1 S 42 pts
                  Stars: 5 C, 3 F, 1 S 22 pts
                  Scorpions: 5 C, 1 F, 2 S 19 pts
                  Western United: 4 C, 6 F, 6 S 30 pts
                  MPS: 3 C, 2 F, 10 S 23 pts
                  Crusaders: 2 C, 2 F, 4 S 14 pts
                  Juventus: 2 C, 2 F, 1 S 11 pts
                  South Shore: 2 C, 1 F, 2 S 10 pts
                  Eagles: 2 C, 1 F, 2 S 10 pts
                  FC United: 2 C, 0 F, 1 S 7 pts
                  SS United Blazers: 1C, 3 F, 3 S 12 pts
                  CRU: 1 C, 2 F, 1 S 8 pts
                  Freedom: 1 C 3 pts
                  Nova: 1 C 3 pts
                  Spirit: 4 F 8 pts
                  Aztec: 2 F, 2 S 6 pts
                  SUNS: 2 F 4 pts
                  Inter Bandits: 1 F, 5 S 7 pts
                  Blast: 1 F, 2 S 4 pts
                  Nor'easter: 1 F, 2 S 4 pts
                  Fuller Hamlets: 1 F, 1 S 3 pts
                  Pioneers: 1 F, 1 S 3 pts
                  Dragons: 1 F 2 pts
                  Olympique: 1 F 2 pts
                  KICS: 1 S 1 pt
                  Galway: 1 S 1 pt
                  Puma: 1 S 1 pt
                  Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Thanks for chasing this down. How does it look by gender?

                    Did the original question query about the same clubs being in the semis or the same teams?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I can break it down by gender and will do so a little later. As you might suspect, the Bolts were strongest on the boys side, Stars and Scorpions on the girls. I was really surprised how well MPS has done and it's not just girls. 2006 was a good year for them. They had 1 championship (GU19) and 6 teams to make the semis, 3 were boys (BU15, BU17, BU19).

                      I think the original question was clubs, but you allude to a good point about teams. However, I'll leave that to someone else to determine.
                      Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        The u16 age group....I believe it is the same teams.

                        Top 4 teams are very close but with different styles

                        The past 3 years goes as followed I think:

                        U13 Select Champs Stars finalists Aztec and WMP Semis
                        U14 Stars Champs Aztecs Finalist Select and WMP Semis
                        U15 Stars Champs WMP FInalist Select and Aztecs Semis

                        then you look at recent scores that I know of and understand that they are just scores and we do not know the particulars for each game:

                        Spring MAPLE Aztecs 1 Select 0
                        Round robin Select 1 Stars 1
                        Round Robin WMP 0 Aztecs 0

                        Then if you at recent tournament scores that some of these teams attended and you will see that these teams are all very close.

                        These will be 3 great games this weekend.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          correction-
                          it was actually Western United (a team now folded) in the U13 Semis in 2004 not the Pioneers.
                          however you are correct in that the last 3 years it has been the Pios, SSS, Stars and Aztecs, (last 4 for SSS, Stars, and Aztecs)

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Hats off to Carmac, a pretty nice job. Using the various prognostication services at my disposal I offer the following as finals match-ups.

                            U-13

                            Scorpions v. Stars

                            U-14

                            Scorpions v. Stars

                            U-15

                            Scorpions v. Stars

                            U-16

                            Select v. Stars

                            U-17

                            Scorpions v. Bolts

                            In essense this will mean that there are no real upsets, which in itself is unusual but I think based on the projected weather and field conditions it will hold true.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              There could be upsets in many age groups especially U13, U14 and U16. Nothing is certain in state cup.

                              Comment

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