Mathman Ratings

Let's try a new topic about the rating systems - using Mathman as the topic since we all love to use his ratings for reference.

I have always realized that a huge element to the ratings is the number of games played and included in the ratings calculation. Obviously the quality of games is also very important according to Mathman as well but I am not sure any of us can say exactly how that works. I have always noticed that the MPS teams have far fewer games in the ratings which is clearly due to their not playing at U11 or U12 in any competitive leagues or tournaments (until this past year with their all-star SOE teams).

I was just looking at the U15 ratings and noticed how much impact the number of games has. So as a matter of interest I calculated the rating amount per game and was trying to figure out if that meant anything. I am not sure if it does as perhaps Mathman's calculations deflate older game values over time - but this clearly shows that Stars and Scorpions are benefoted greatly by the shear number of games they have played. I think it also shows that MPS teams are clearly hurt by the shear number of less games that they have played. Some other teams seem to be hurt as well.

But certainly if you calculated comparable number of games played the MPS teams would be higher than they are ranked (Renegades are #3 and Cape Cod Lady Crusaders are #18 but have the highest value per game played). Maybe this is because the typical MAPLE game is worth less in Mathman's values than the Super Y, US Club and other tournament games that MPS plays? That would make sense as those games are played between very comparable teams but MPS does not play these teams except in State Cup and MPS has done well in this age group in State Cup. Clearly success in State Cup provides a larger return as the top 5 teams have done very well over the last two years (other than the implosion of FH this summer).

Here's the chart to # 18 from Mathman with the value per game added in:

rank points games team value per game
this yr/last this yr/total
1 1712 / 1712 0/156 FC Stars of Mass United 10.97
2 1567 / 1567 0/141 Scorpions Elite 11.11
3 1276 / 1276 7/59 MPS Boston Renegades 94 Pr 21.63
4 1247 / 1247 0/97 Fuller Hamlets A 12.86
5 1247 / 1247 0/116 Blackhawks Predators 10.75
6 1241 / 1241 0/92 FC Puma 13.49
7 1238 / 1238 0/87 Crusaders FC 14.23
8 1181 / 1181 0/84 Pioneers 14.06
9 1179 / 1179 0/112 FC Greater Boston 10.53
10 1174 / 1174 0/104 FC Stars of Mass Athletic 11.29
11 1168 / 1168 0/86 Aztecs White Flame 13.58
12 1160 / 1160 0/97 PASA 11.96
13 1157 / 1157 0/89 South Shore Select 13.00
14 1130 / 1130 0/81 Western United 13.95
15 1111 / 1111 0/93 Nova Eclipse 11.95
16 1099 / 1099 0/84 Explosion 13.08
17 1092 / 1092 0/94 NE Eagles 11.62
18 1082 / 1082 6/41 MPS Cape Cod Lady Crusaders 94 26.39

Any opinions or other interpretations?

Re: Mathman Ratings

It's my understanding that it's not about how many games you play but the competition you play against. The quickest way to gain points is to beat a team rated much higher than you. Beating teams that are rated lower doesn't give a team many points. Thus, the Stars and Scorps play top flight competition and can gain a lot of points but MPS teams tend to play weaker teams (MASC, Super Y, etc.) and so won't climb the ladder as fast even if in reality they are just as good as the Stars.

Re: Mathman Ratings

An interesting response but it does not seem to be the case as to rankings of opponents the way you said that, as look at MPS Renegades - with far fewer games they are number three in the state. Obviously reaching state cup final last spring was a big step up and they beat three MAPLE D1's to get there and tied Scorps. They also reached finals in a US Club tournament and beat four different state champions last year in various tournaments (NH, NYE, VT and Maine) so these were big points for them as well then. They also were second in a tournament in Georgia playing 3 of the top 5 teams in Georgia with good Mathman ratings. So their competition overall would seem to have been considered better by Mathman than the games the MAPLE D1 teams were playing (each other) other than stars and scorpions tournament action. In fact doesn't that seem to be confirmed by the overall lack of change in the scorpions numbers last year as starting last year they were almost equal to stars and stars blew by them during the year.

Re: Mathman Ratings

MPS Renegades must be playing some highly ranked teams somewhere as they have jumped to number 3 with less than 1/2 the games played on average than the rest of the state's teams have played. So they are gaining fast and if the second poster is correct they have been beating higher ranked teams to do this.

Re: Mathman Ratings

It's my understanding that it's not about how many games you play but the competition you play against. The quickest way to gain points is to beat a team rated much higher than you. Beating teams that are rated lower doesn't give a team many points. Thus, the Stars and Scorps play top flight competition and can gain a lot of points but MPS teams tend to play weaker teams (MASC, Super Y, etc.) and so won't climb the ladder as fast even if in reality they are just as good as the Stars.

MPS doesnt play MASC after U14.

Playing more games also can hurt as its more chances to lose to a lesser ranked team. 1 game can have a huge impact depending on who you are playing. I understand #18 MPS Cape team beat the #3 MPS Renegade team late last season so it would be interesting to see what impact that 1 game had for both teams. These teams are closer than most people think.

Renegades over Cape in PKs for State Cup last spring.
Renegades 1-0 in Super Y
Cape 2-1 in Super Y

I know families on the Cape side and they had GK issues last season which they have since fixed plus added a few players. Why only 6 rated games for Cape and 7 for Renegades I dont know. Must be a cut off date for MM.

Re: Mathman Ratings

Those are last year's super y games that were added in. Not new games.

Re: Mathman Ratings

An interesting response but it does not seem to be the case as to rankings of opponents the way you said that, as look at MPS Renegades - with far fewer games they are number three in the state. Obviously reaching state cup final last spring was a big step up and they beat three MAPLE D1's to get there and tied Scorps. They also reached finals in a US Club tournament and beat four different state champions last year in various tournaments (NH, NYE, VT and Maine) so these were big points for them as well then. They also were second in a tournament in Georgia playing 3 of the top 5 teams in Georgia with good Mathman ratings. So their competition overall would seem to have been considered better by Mathman than the games the MAPLE D1 teams were playing (each other) other than stars and scorpions tournament action. In fact doesn't that seem to be confirmed by the overall lack of change in the scorpions numbers last year as starting last year they were almost equal to stars and stars blew by them during the year.

MM ratings don't factor in whether the team is a state champ. Beating te VT state champ is probably not going to give many points. The fastest route up the ratings is to beat a team rated significantly higher.

Re: Mathman Ratings

Beating te VT state champ is probably not going to give many points.

There are many states that would say the same thing about Mass state champs.

Re: Mathman Ratings

Beating te VT state champ is probably not going to give many points.

There are many states that would say the same thing about Mass state champs.

Not true!!!! Massachusetts soccer is highly regarded and respected by most of the USA....U15 Stars are ranked #16 in the country, U16 Stars #5 and U16 Scorps are #18 (as of today: http://www.girlssoccerrate.com/index.cfm) in Mathman's rankings.

Re: Mathman Ratings

Yeah - that would be the U16 Scorps team that did not win one game in region 1 tournament this past summer. That's another clear example of inacuracy in a rating system.

Re: Mathman Ratings

You mean the Mass State Champion and Region 1 Champion Scorpions who played in the Nationals without their National Team player and the 'C' team GK because their own GK was out? The team that has won PDA twice, WAGS one, Jefferson Cup twice etc... ? That team? You people that didnt make Scorpions or lost a few games to them really need to get over it.

Re: Mathman Ratings

Not true!!!! Massachusetts soccer is highly regarded and respected by most of the USA....

Yea maybe most of the states that are weaker than Mass like say Rhode Island or Alaska

Re: Mathman Ratings

Yeah - that would be the U16 Scorps team that did not win one game in region 1 tournament this past summer. That's another clear example of inacuracy in a rating system.

Is this a troll? Didn't the U16 Scorpions win the Region I tournament?

Re: Mathman Ratings

Beating te VT state champ is probably not going to give many points.

There are many states that would say the same thing about Mass state champs.

Not in Region I, my dear.

Yeah - that would be the U16 Scorps team that did not win one game in region 1 tournament this past summer. That's another clear example of inacuracy in a rating system.

Someone in this forum hasn't a clue.

Re: Mathman Ratings

Not in Region I, my dear.

I disagree darling